1. Explicit price on carbon
Wherever an explicit price on carbon exists – emissions trading schemes, carbon taxes or shadow prices used by corporates – it creates a structural pull towards low‑carbon energy. The higher and more predictable the price, the more valuable green technology and carbon‑saving solutions become.
2. Spreads between brown and green assets
Financing conditions increasingly differ between high‑carbon and low‑carbon projects. Tighter covenants, higher margins or shorter tenors for “brown” projects signal where transition risk is being priced in – and where capital is actively searching for credible green alternatives.
3. Corporate net‑zero commitments turning into contracts
Announcements are no longer enough. The key signal is when net‑zero commitments turn into signed offtake agreements, PPAs and decarbonisation mandates that rely on specific low‑carbon technologies and services.
4. Grid and infrastructure constraints
Congested grids, limited interconnection and high balancing costs increasingly determine where carbon‑efficient capacity is valuable. Flexibility assets – storage, demand‑side response, digital optimisation – are central to this story.
5. Better data on real‑world performance
The final signal is improved transparency. High‑frequency data on energy use, emissions and abatement costs makes it easier to distinguish robust green investments from marketing. This is where digital platforms and AI‑enabled analytics can unlock value.