Why simple forecasts are not enough
Carbon prices, policy frameworks and technology costs can move in ways that are hard to capture with a single forecast. Scenarios allow investors to explore a range of plausible futures and stress‑test portfolios.
Designing useful scenarios
Useful scenarios are internally consistent, transparent about assumptions and linked to concrete portfolio metrics such as cash‑flows, covenants and valuation multiples.
Connecting scenarios to decisions
The goal is not to predict the future but to improve decisions today: when to exit, when to double down, and how to rebalance between green and carbon‑intensive exposure.